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2010년 10월 12일 화요일
Android tablets to outsell the iPad, analyst predicts
We've been watching the Android v. iOS battle for quite some time in the smartphone world, and with the launch of the Samsung Galaxy Tab, that war is going to move to the tablet division. No one is knows for sure which side will win, but Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has predicted that Android will become the king of the tablet hill. Munster explains that Apple's supply chain vendors are prepping to manufacture 45 million iPads for the next year, but he believes that that number will fall somewhere around 20-25 million. Those numbers will still make the iPad a success, sure, but Munster believes that Android tablets will bring some stiff competition and eventually win out over the iPad. Still, the iPad will have a good chunk of the market, with MeeGo following behind it. As for Microsoft? Munster says that it'll be tough for them to gain any relevance in the tablet space.
Estimating the Verizon iPhone Impact
Updating the latest rumor, the Wall Street Journal is now reporting as fact that Apple “is making a version of its iPhone that Verizon Wireless will sell early next year.” The question then becomes one of how much a Verizon iPhone will help Apple in the U.S. smartphone market.
The U.S. wireless market has just under 300 million subscribers, with around 90 percent accounted for by the four biggest carriers. As of July, Verizon and AT&T were roughly the same size, while Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile combined have fewer customers than either. Considering that Android devices are available to triple the number of potential customers as the iPhone, Apple hasn’t done too badly, though arguably AT&T has done better.
At the beginning of the year, AT&T was approximately 5 million subscribers behind Verizon. As of July, that number is 2 million, and it’s very likely that lead will shrink further with the first full quarter of iPhone 4 sales being reported this month.
Is the iPad Apple’s Key to the Enterprise?
RIM recently announced the PlayBook, a 7-inch BlackBerry tablet clearly aimed at business professionals, but is it a case of too little, too late? Has Apple secured its entry into the enterprise market with the introduction of the iPad?
Computer World’s Jonny Evans seems to think so. In an article posted today, Evans cites his experiences at a massive international financial event in Geneva as evidence that Apple is cracking the enterprise market in a big way. iPads and iPhones were omnipresent at this event, according to Evans, despite it being exactly the type of place you’d expect a BlackBerry crowd.
Anecdotal evidence isn’t the only kind supporting the claim that Apple’s enterprise influence is growing. The iPhone 4, iPhone 3GS and iPad led the market in enterprise activations during the period between May and September of 2010 according to research firm Good Technology. Behind them was the Motorola Droid-X, an Android-based handset.
iOS devices accounted for 56 percent of net new activations’ total. For the iPad to appear third on that list overall, when it isn’t even a smartphone, is a hugely impressive feat for Apple. It’s clear the tablet is having an impact on Apple’s business, and I maintain that its success is also resulting in a halo effect for Apple’s iPhones, too.
Apple Skipping LTE, Planning Dual-Mode 3G iPhone for 2011
According to TechCrunch’s Steve Cheney, Apple won’t be introducing an LTE-capable handset when it launches its CDMA-based iPhone early in January, despite Verizon’s indication that it wouldn’t offer one otherwise. But Apple’s gone even further: Even its mid-year iPhone refresh won’t be getting 4G network support.
Instead, Apple will offer a dual-mode GSM/CDMA device when it refreshes the iPhone around June or July, according to sources. That handset will then be able to work universally on all networks worldwide, though it won’t be on the cutting edge of connectivity speeds. AT&T plans to launch LTE networks in 2011, and many other major international carriers have similar plans. Rogers in Canada, for instance, launched its first LTE trial just last week.
Apple made a similar move with its launch of the first iPhone, which came out in 2007 with only EDGE technology built-in, despite the wide availability of 3G on AT&T at the time. While it might seem like Apple is missing the boat, in truth avoiding the first line of 4G chips keeps costs down, and likely also leads to a better quality product finding its way to consumer hands.
4 Apple Purchase Regrets
iPod Touch (1st Generation)
This was one of my most anticipated Apple purchases of all time. I was nearly hopping with excitement about it, as I couldn’t get the iPhone where I was, but there were a couple of problems with this early iOS device. First, it didn’t have third-party apps at this point. Second, it had very little storage compared even to my iPod with video. While the interface experience was amazing, it wouldn’t prove a watershed moment in my gadget-wielding career, like the iPhone 3G was when I got it nearly a year later.
My problem isn’t so much with the iPod touch itself; it’s that I bought the first generation of the product. The touch seems to be one of the pieces of hardware Apple is most guilty about artificially hobbling in terms of features, something which I think they do to differentiate the product from the iPhone. In retrospect, I should’ve waited to see features introduced that I really would’ve appreciated in a mobile media player, like a camera, better onboard storage or the still-absent 3G connectivity.
Magic Mouse
The only reason I didn’t include the Mighty Mouse on this list is because the Magic Mouse was more disappointing, since I was expecting so much from it because of its predecessor. Sure, it tracks better than the Mighty Mouse, but what mouse doesn’t, really?
The touch features of this device are kind of neat, in a gimmicky sort of way, but they aren’t really as useful as a trackwheel/middle button, unless you count the fact that they never get gummed up with dust, which has only happened to me with Apple mice anyway, so I don’t. It’s also a battery hog, and it’s not particularly comfortable.
I recently tried getting my Magic Mouse set up again, because I needed a spare input device as a temporary stop-gap, and I think it’s actually broken. It might still be under warranty, but I don’t even care. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
MacBook Pro
This one isn’t really anything to do with any fault on Apple’s part. The 13-inch MacBook Pro is a beautiful, well-designed machine. But shortly before I got it, I got an iMac for my home office, and shortly after I got it, I got an iPad. Between the two, I don’t really find myself using my MBP that much anymore.
Any work I do generally requires ample screen real estate, so I don’t really feel like using the MacBook Pro if I have my iMac and multi-monitor setup available as an option. Add in that most of the places I visit away from home regularly also have at least one large-screen iMac available for use, and the MBP seems less and less useful. Plus, I can usually accomplish with an iPad and a Bluetooth keyboard all the work I would’ve done with a notebook while in transit.
Believe me, I’m as surprised to see this one on this list as you are. I never thought it’d be a purchase I’d come to regret when I originally handed over the cash.
Apple Battery Charger
It’s cute, it’s compatible with Apple’s swappable electrical plugs, and it’s small, but other than that, this really isn’t one of Apple’s best efforts. I find it to be incredibly temperamental (why do I have to unplug and plug in three or four times to get the light to stop blinking orange?) and it only works with AA batteries, not AAA. At least with six batteries included, the price is right, but that’s about the only quantifiable advantage Apple’s offering has over those of traditional battery companies like Duracell et. al.
Read more...Windows Phone 7 Launches Today
Today is Windows Phone 7 launch day and an important one for not just Microsoft, but the mobile industry as well. For Microsoft, the new mobile operating system isn't a mere update to Windows Mobile, it's an entirely new effort, build from the ground-up. Microsoft is putting all its chips on the table with WP7. If it fails, then Microsoft won't have just missed an opportunity to participate in the mobile market - it may miss the only opportunity it has left. Windows Mobile has long since lost its luster and the tween-and-teen targeted KIN devices failed only weeks after launch - Microsoft has to get it right this time.
That's not to say that WP7 won't do well - it's not entirely beyond reason that it will. IDC's mobile analyst Ramon Llamas said, for example, that the phone is a "potential hit." Even Apple insider, Daring Fireball's John Gruber described the OS as "really nice."
But a nice OS is not enough. As blogger (and former Microsoftie) Robert Scoble pointed out last night, Microsoft has to compete not just on looks, but on apps. And not just top apps like Facebook and Twitter, but all the rest, too. "The long tail of apps DOES matter, " wrote Scoble. "It matters for the same reason why Microsoft wasn't able to remove features from Excel. Each app has hundreds of thousands of users."
So how many apps does WP7 have? An Engadget tipster is now saying only 86 at launch. That's a lot fewer than reported earlier, when 2,000 apps were said to be available immediately. We'll find out soon enough: the launch event starts now, at 9:30 AM EST in NYC. Stay tuned.
Windows Phone 7 Revealed: What You Need to Know
Microsoft officially unveiled its new mobile operating system, Windows Phone 7, at a press event held this morning in New York City. CEO Steve Ballmer described the new line of Windows Phones as "different" and more modern, in both design and principles. With Windows Phone 7, the focus is on how "real people want to use their phones," he said.
Besides being different, a key point Microsoft needs to drive home if wanting to compete in a crowded mobile landscape, there was also a big focus on personalization. "We also wanted these to be wonderfully mine, or yours, or yours, or the next person. Here's my phone, the way I've made it wonderfully mine," explained Ballmer. "My photos, my email, my start screen, my activities, my world... and of course, my avatar."
The Software
Microsoft Corporate VP Joe Belifore described the phone's final software as an operating system that helps you get things done. "We wanted to figure out how to build a phone that simplifies the basics," he said.
One of the ways WP7 achieves this, explained Belifore, is through the use of something called Windows Phone Hubs. These live-updating tiles display on the Windows Phone 7 homescreen, alerting users to new text messages, missed calls, voicemails and more. But hubs can deliver non-phone related info too, like live Twitter and Facebook updates, Internet news and new photos uploaded by friends. One hub even connects the phone to Xbox LIVE, Microsoft's online service for its Xbox 360 gaming console.
The tiles can be moved around and deleted, so as to allow complete customization of the homescreen.
The Camera
Another major feature with the new mobile operating system is how the camera works. Instead of having to launch an app, WP7 users will just press a hardware-based camera button to snap a photo. Then from within the camera's onscreen interface, you can access the photo gallery and immediately upload those photos to the cloud.
iOS Games Rival Prime-Time TV
Several times a week, nearly 23 million people stop what they're doing and tune in to watch "American Idol". "Dancing with the Stars" and "NCIS" come in just under 20 million viewers. And then there are social games on iOS, the operating system behind the iPhone, iPod touch and iPad, which attract 19 million users, according to the latest statistics by analytics firm Flurry.
Flurry points to iOS games, and apps in general, as the next direction for advertisers, citing the recent slump in television advertising. Appropriately, the stat of 19 million users is for "a daily audience of more than 19 million who spend over 22 minutes per day using these apps". The average half-hour long sitcom airs about 22 minutes of footage, so these 19 million users are spending an equal amount of time with an app that they would otherwise with a sitcom episode.
The Flurry blog post suggests that this is only part of the picture, as the firm only accounts for one fifth of the 250,000 apps in the App Store. "Additionally, since this analysis focuses on only two categories of applications, social games and social networking apps," the company asserts, "it's clear that iOS devices are already ahead of prime time television's hottest shows." The bigger point, according to Flurry, is that these apps are accessible at any time, year-round, and their users can therefore be reached by advertisers 15 times more frequently.
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