Estimating the Verizon iPhone Impact

Updating the latest rumor, the Wall Street Journal is now reporting as fact that Apple “is making a version of its iPhone that Verizon Wireless will sell early next year.” The question then becomes one of how much a Verizon iPhone will help Apple in the U.S. smartphone market.

The U.S. wireless market has just under 300 million subscribers, with around 90 percent accounted for by the four biggest carriers. As of July, Verizon and AT&T were roughly the same size, while Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile combined have fewer customers than either. Considering that Android devices are available to triple the number of potential customers as the iPhone, Apple hasn’t done too badly, though arguably AT&T has done better.

At the beginning of the year, AT&T was approximately 5 million subscribers behind Verizon. As of July, that number is 2 million, and it’s very likely that lead will shrink further with the first full quarter of iPhone 4 sales being reported this month.

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